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Prefer Eicher Motors for long term: Sandeep Shah

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 24 Agustus 2014 | 23.55

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management is of the view that one may prefer Eicher Motors for long term.

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management told CNBC-TV18, " Divis Laboratories has a fairly strong cramp business and they are also on the generic side as some of the lowest cost producers of certain drugs. One of the things they do is that they don't enter into conflict with multi national pharmaceuticals companies, on the generic side they will not look at Para 4 challenges nor they will look at patented drugs, they will only look at off patent drugs. So this is available at relative discount through the large caps, it has the best returns ratio in the industry, has one of the highest margins after Sun Pharmaceuticals and Sun Pharmaceuticals margins are way higher than everybody else."

He further added, " Eicher Motors is a stock that has done well but the story is still unfolding. This is one stock where earnings can grow at 45 percent or so for the next three years. It may look optically expensive at 25 times next year but given the quality of earnings growth and given the fact their strong Royal Enfield franchise has been growing when the economy has been slowing down and with the economy recovering you should see a pick turn up in both the commercial vehicle business as well as the engine export rally ramping up as well the buses business, I think these are almost sure shot for somebody who is willing to stay invested for at least two to three years."


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Buy oil gas stocks on corrections: Sandeep Shah

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management is of the view that one may buy oil & gas stocks on corrections.

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management told CNBC-TV18, "In oil & gas the structural story is clearly unfolding, it began sometime back when the UPA started with 50 paisa a month diesel price hikes and that is when the story really started."

He further added, "For the current level of oil prices and for the current level of almost zero diesel subsidies, stocks are perhaps partly priced that in. If you look at it from a long term perspective these are clearly the oil refinery and marketing companies, these are clearly oligopolistic business with just three players controlling more than 90-95 percent or 99 percent of market share. There are significant entry barriers in the urban space, when we saw  Reliance and  Essar get into setting up their own petrol pumps they were really focusing on highways because there has to be real estate available. So there is a significant entry barrier for this business."

"However at the same point of time it is unlikely that this sector will earn super normal profits because the products are fairly sensitive. So having said that valuations are still reasonable, there is a significant opportunity for return on equity (ROE) to expand significantly from here. As long as we have a global economy which is not accelerating dramatically I think oil prices will remain stable or at best in modest increases," Shah said.

He further said, "In this environment one should be looking for corrections to enter the stock. I agree with you that in the short term you might see more of a consolidation rather than a continuation of the run we have seen over the last few months."


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Stay invested in HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank: Sandeep Shah

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management is of the view that one may stay invested in HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank.

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management told CNBC-TV18, "We continue to remain bullish on the private sector banks and public sector undertakings (PSU) banks will offer buying opportunities like we saw couple of weeks back. Broadly given the fact that we are in a bull market and we are at a stage where the economy is rebounding from a decade low, from 4.5 percent maybe going back up to at least 5.5 percent this year and accelerating to 6.5 percent. What will tend to happen is the banks like  Axis Bank and  ICICI Bank might actually tend to outperform the higher quality banks like HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank, having said that if you continue to own the  HDFC Bank and  IndusInd Bank you should continue to stay invested."

"If you are looking for little more pop and if you are looking for returns outperformance over three to five years of timeframe, then stocks like Axis Bank and ICICI Bank will give you better returns maybe ICICI Bank even more so because some of parts valuations tends to work better in bull market, tends to work with economy recovering as the markets starts to price in value of the subsidiaries and the different businesses," he added.

"On the PSU banking space I would continue to prefer be with quality and size we would include  State Bank of India (SBI) and  Bank of Baroda (BoB). If wish to nibble at some of the smaller banks then you can build smaller positions there in maybe  Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) which is trading at close to 0.5 times price to book but there of course is the reversion to me theory at work. Overweight banks in general for those with low risk appetite stay with the private sector banks, those with relatively higher risk appetite can play the PSU banks as well," he said.


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Goldman inks $1.2-bn deal over US bond claims

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie, announced the settlement yesterday with the Wall Street powerhouse.

Goldman Sachs has agreed to a settlement worth USD 1.2 billion to resolve claims that it misled US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac about risky mortgage securities it sold them before the housing market collapsed in 2007.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie, announced the settlement yesterday with the Wall Street powerhouse.

New York-based Goldman Sachs sold the securities to the companies between 2005 and 2007.

Under the settlement, Goldman is paying USD 3.15 billion to buy back the securities from Fannie and Freddie.

The FHFA said the settlement was worth USD 1.2 billion because of the difference between what Goldman is paying and the current value of the securities. That means Goldman is paying $1.2 billion more than what the securities are now worth.


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Buy ONGC, says CK Narayan

CK Narayan of Growth Avenues is of the view that one may buy Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.

CK Narayan of Growth Avenues told CNBC-TV18, "Oil and gas clearly is one of the spaces alongside with banking. I think banking will surely contribute significantly in the next week at least until that announcement about the holding company etc is out of the way. In oil and gas space, all of them are on a complete tear, you got  Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL),  Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and  Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on a total tear and if you look at  Petronet LNG which is also a parallel player in that and that is also moving up."

He further added, " Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has just had a nice upside breakout and has been holding on to those highs. The  Oil India is doing well and  Reliance Industries is the only bit of a drag in the whole particular pact. If you leave aside Reliance and then look at all the others, great place still left in IOC, HPCL and BPCL in that particular order and ONGC at these levels also is a great buy."

"I am speaking all these from a short to medium term perspective. We can wait for reactions but then it has been about five to six months and there has been no reaction and could go there safely and just buy. Somewhere we have to join the gang and play the game as it is being played by the rest of the market, we cannot keep forever waiting for a pullback," he said.

Disclosure: Network 18, which publishes moneycontrol.com, is now part of the Reliance Group.


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Buy HDFC on declines, says CK Narayan

CK Narayan of Growth Avenues advises buying Housing Development Finance Corporation at lower levels.

CK Narayan of Growth Avenues told CNBC-TV18, " ITC and  Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) from a market perspective two completely different animals, HDFC seems to be complete pullback of a profit taking nature it is not any kind of sell off. There has been some amount of light level of profit taking if you look at the derivatives side I see a significant built up in positions which is not to be treated lightly."

He further added, "There is lot of talk now more so concentrated on the merger stuff. If you really look at a relative performance chart between HDFC and  HDFC Bank clearly in the recent weeks, HDFC has very definitely taken the lead, so the market seems to be leading more towards HDFC as probably coming out with the better end of the stick. Lower levels in HDFC should definitely be useful to buy."

"As far as ITC is concerned bit of a range, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks moves in fits and jerks. They are all up there valuations has always a bit of a tricky issue as far as FMCG is concerned. We have been saying that ever since they were 25 times PE and now they are 40 times PE and the same set of arguments still persist but the stocks are in no more to come down. Periodically one should be buying into ITC the defensives names that is the stock which I am extremely bullish on and if you ask me one stock which will double in two years is ITC," he said.


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Buy Sun Pharmaceuticals, Lupin: Sandeep Shah

According to Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management, one may buy Sun Pharmaceuticals and Lupin.

Sandeep Shah of Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management told CNBC-TV18, "If you continue to own  Sun Pharmaceutical and  Lupin Ltd there is no reason to exit. Those stocks will continue to compound at 20-25 percent, you can still look to buy those names if one want a little more beta in your portfolio."

He further added, "One can continue to look at stocks like  Divis Laboratories which has not been performing in a linear trend but it is still fairly a high quality company. You still have the second highest margins in pharmaceuticals after Sun Pharmaceuticals what is perhaps the highest return on capital employed and return on equity (ROE) in the space, so that remains a quality name as well."

"What is also happening is that the market is beginning to come to terms of the fact that in spite of having an economy which is recovering, in spite of having investor's faith back in India's economy and its government, the fact that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is tends to prefer a relatively weaker currency the fact that the RBI prefers to shore up their forex reserves at every available opportunity is one of the reason why IT and Pharmaceuticals stocks continue to do well only one of the reason of course there is a strong underlying fundamental reason there as well," Shah said.

He further said, "There are lot of other ideas also one could look at but one would need to do company wise specific research and for stocks like Sun Pharmaceuticals and Lupin any correction is a good time to buy them."


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Forex reserves rise by $ 43.3 m to $ 319.3 bn

Reserves had fallen by USD 643.3 million to USD 319.347 billion in the week to August 8, while it had dropped by USD 573.5 million to USD 319.99 billion in the week to August 1 after touching close to the life-time high of USD 321 billion in the previous week.

After falling for two consecutive weeks, foreign exchange reserves marginally rose to USD 319.39 billion, up by USD 43.3 million, for the week, driven by an increase in foreign currency assets.

Reserves had fallen by USD 643.3 million to USD 319.347 billion in the week to August 8, while it had dropped by USD 573.5 million to USD 319.99 billion in the week to August 1 after touching close to the life-time high of USD 321 billion in the previous week.

Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major constituent of overall reserves, increased by USD 54.7 million to USD 292.101 billion for the week ended August 15, the Reserve Bank of India said in its weekly statement.

FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and yen held in reserves. Gold reserves remained unchanged at USD 21.173 billion in the reporting week. The special drawing rights were down USD 8.3 million to USD 4.416 billion, and India's reserve position with the IMF dipped USD 3.1 million to USD 1.699 billion during the week, the apex bank said.


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Raghuram Rajan, Nachiket Mor deserve better

I  have so far resisted commenting on other journalists and their views but this once I am violating myself given rule. The myriad articles accusing RBI governor Raghuram Rajan of bringing his school fellow and friend Nachiket Mor into the RBI as its Deputy governor or COO are outright lies.

May be these fellow journalists of mine don't intend to lie (since some of them are really nice people) but on this one, they are making some really facile conclusions with little or no evidence and based entirely on gossip.

For one thing, the decision to restructure RBI was not Rajan's baby at all. It was a job begun before he took over.

At an offsite for senior management in early 2013, two groups of CGMs and RMs put forth their views on how they would see their work and their departmental design reorganised. Both groups argued that the current 21 departments lead to RBI working in silos.

In his first interaction with senior management, the key takeaways of the offsite were presented to the new governor who asked them to go ahead and present a report on the issue. Deputy governor K C Chakarabarty contributed a great deal of his thoughts and the report was finally ready under deputy governor R Gandhi.

The report, widely contributed to by RBI senior management, aimed to bring departments doing similar functions under one DG. For instance, regulation of banks, NBFCs, and urban cooperative banks lies with different departments. The report wants them under one DG so that a change in prudential rules in one part of the financial sector is extended to other sectors, if necessary, before it gives way to regulatory arbitrage. Likewise citizen-facing departments were to be clubbed together. Monetary policy and research would be a department by itself.  

The restructuring envisages one department that will look at RBI's internal housekeeping, the HR, training, transfers and promotions of RBI officials. The creating of such a department is with the following objectives: One, many staff functions need to be upgraded because their need has been felt only recently. For instance, forensic auditing, derivatives trading or IT.

The HR department is meant to identify such lacunas and plan the training. The idea is to make this department come under a 5th DG who should be called the COO considering the nature of his/her functions. This DG/COO position is meant for an RBI insider, since they are simply better placed to handle such issues. In fact, top ranking RBI officials told me other central banks too have one DG position for internal affairs so as to ensure that people from any branch - even security, press relations, or say Hindi bhasha can rise to the position of DG.

Now the point that these officials make is that by definition this 5th DG will be an RBI insider and hence journalists assuming that Rajan created this post for his class fellow Nachiket Mor is so completely laughable and fantastic. It was a demand from RBI senior management and will be filled by one of their ilk.

 As I see it such a function is not even Mor's  core competence or interest. Mor is a banker par excellence with extraordinary skills in treasury management, prudential rules and financial inclusion. Doing HR for RBI would not even interest him, even assuming an outsider was recruited for this, which again is most unlikely.

In any case since a fifth DG will require amending the Act, currently the revamp efforts envisage a person of ED level to head this housekeeping cum HR department. Once the Act is amended, the DG would be chosen by a government search committee, so again, getting one's class fellow into the position will not be possible. Not that Mor will even want to throw his hat in the ring.

The result of such unwarranted mud slinging and casting crony charges on the governor has been to instil fear in the minds of the unions against the revamp. While the revamp is looking at lateral hires too, seen in the context of press reports saying Mor will become the 5th DG, the unions are worried that promotions will become tough in the new revamped RBI and that newcomers may get the cream.

As two DGs, one current and one former, told me, RBI is in need of restructuring and retraining. There is a need to stop this old bureaucratic practice of transfering people every three or five years. There is a need to keep people in the same job for long so that specialised skills are developed. Rigorous performance evaluation is also needed so that knowledge gaps are identified and training provided.  They pointed out that RBI is functioning in a fast changing financial world where instruments and individuals are getting smarter by the day. Rapid and constant growth of key officials is a necessity. But this entire sensible exercise has been reduced to a fanciful charge that the governor wants to favour his old school friend.

I do hope the tiny band of scribes who cover the central bank show a little more maturity rather than a  cub-reporter's craze for sensational headlines.


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Central and east Gujarat expected to receive rain in next 2 to 3 days

There seems some respite for the people of Gujarat observing dry weather for the last 4 to 5 days. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain is expected in central and east Gujarat in the next 2 to 3 days. Northern and western parts will still remain dry.

The month of August began on a positive note with some good widespread showers being observed in the state during the first ten days. Thereafter rain decreased and was only witnessed in the form of occasional light patchy showers. Ahmedabad recorded some rain on the 18th but there haven't been any showers since then.

The temperatures are on the rise with Ahmedabad recording 35.3 degrees Celsius as the maximum temperature on Friday, which is 3 degrees above normal. Baroda was 4 degrees above normal at 34.8 degrees Celsius, while Idar saw maximum settling 5 degrees above normal at 36.4 degrees Celsius. This clearly explains how uncomfortable the weather has been in the state in the last few days.

This spell of rain will pull down the maximum temperatures by 1to 2 degrees and provide some relief to the people for a couple of days. But the respite will be short lived as the temperature will again shoot up after decrease in rain. The region is already facing a rainfall deficit of 33%, from 1st June to 22nd August

Picture courtesy:globalgujaratnews.in

By: Skymetweather.com


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